Interest Rate Cut Expectations Continue to Ferment, SHFE Tin Price Is Expected to Maintain Fluctuating Trend [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the afternoon of September 17, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract closed at 272,430 yuan/mt, down slightly by 310 yuan, or 0.11%, from the previous day. During the morning session, prices fluctuated rangebound around the 272,000 yuan/mt level, hitting an intraday high of 274,530 yuan/mt and a low of 271,370 yuan/mt, showing a consolidation pattern at elevated levels. Market sentiment was cautious, with trading volume shrinking, reflecting investors' tendency to wait and see ahead of the US Fed's interest rate decision.

On the external market, LME tin prices also moved sideways. Overnight, LME tin closed at $34,750/mt, up slightly by $70, or 0.2%. However, during today's Asian session, LME tin prices pulled back slightly to around $34,740, with the daily range narrowing ($34,600-34,815/mt), indicating that both bulls and bears remained cautious before the macro event. On the inventory side, the low inventory structure continued to provide underlying support for tin prices.

From a macro perspective, market focus was concentrated on the interest rate decision to be released by the US Fed in the evening. The US dollar index fell to a 10-week low as expectations for an interest rate cut continued to build, but profit-taking by bulls ahead of the decision led to narrower fluctuations in base metals overall. Domestically, expectations for the traditional September-October peak season and sentiment underpinned by infrastructure policies remained, but downstream procurement was still mainly on-demand, with no large-scale restocking observed.

Short-term outlook, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to move sideways in the range of 270,000-275,000 yuan/mt. If the US Fed releases dovish signals, tin prices may test the upper end of the range boosted by liquidity expectations; however, if demand fails to meet peak season expectations, prices may come under pressure and pull back. In the afternoon, close attention should be paid to the guidance from the US Fed decision on the US dollar and risk appetite, as well as the transmission effect of changes in spot premiums/discounts on futures prices.